OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-24
🇩🇪 Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Paderborn 0.80 1 - 0 1.80 Hamburg
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 45.6%44%+2.0%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.3%77%-2.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 59.0%59%+0.4%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 55.8%63%-7.7%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson41.4%29.7%28.9%
xgboost41.2%27.4%31.5%
logistic41.7%28.2%30.1%
Inputs the models saw
PaderbornHamburg
Elo (pre-match)15441598
Surface Elo15441598
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.801.80
Form trend-0.20-0.90
Season points per game0.831.50
Season goals for / game0.831.00
Season goals against / game1.502.50
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W4 W · 2 D
Paderborn: last 5
17 OctAWerder Bremen2 - 2D
17 OctAWerder Bremen2 - 2D
10 OctHStuttgart0 - 2L
10 OctHStuttgart0 - 2L
30 SepADC United1 - 0W
Hamburg: last 5
17 OctHStuttgart1 - 0W
17 OctHStuttgart1 - 0W
10 OctAHoffenheim3 - 2W
10 OctAHoffenheim3 - 2W
04 OctHCopenhagen2 - 0W
Head to head
02 Mar 2025Paderborn2 - 0Hamburg
28 Sep 2024Hamburg2 - 2Paderborn
10 May 2024Paderborn1 - 0Hamburg
09 Dec 2023Hamburg1 - 2Paderborn
05 May 2023Hamburg2 - 2Paderborn
30 Oct 2022Paderborn2 - 3Hamburg
02 Apr 2022Hamburg1 - 2Paderborn
22 Oct 2021Paderborn1 - 2Hamburg
30 Jan 2021Hamburg3 - 1Paderborn
28 Sep 2020Paderborn3 - 4Hamburg
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.1032.3%24 Oct 14:30
Bet3651X2draw3.7027.0%24 Oct 14:30
Bet3651X2home2.2045.5%24 Oct 14:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%24 Oct 14:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.5040.0%24 Oct 14:30
SportyBet1X2away2.9733.7%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7626.6%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4041.7%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5863.3%24 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%24 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:18 UTC