| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 82.9% | 86% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 23.1% | 76.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 10.2% | 89.8% |
| logistic | 22.5% | 77.5% |
| Nikola Bartunkova | Aryna Sabalenka | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1675 | 2021 |
| Surface Elo | 1675 | 2021 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Magdalena Frech | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Mirra Andreeva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Karolina Muchova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Sinja Kraus | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Renata Zarazua | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Nikola Bartunkova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Renata Zarazua | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Elena Rybakina | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | Jessica Pegula | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | 0 - 2 | Nikola Bartunkova |
| 15 Jun 2026 | Aryna Sabalenka | 2 - 1 | Nikola Bartunkova |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.16 | 86.2% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.70 | 17.5% | 03 Oct 06:15 |