| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.2% | 45% | +2.4% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.7% | 80% | -4.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 60.1% | 59% | +1.0% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 36% | +19.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.1% | 24.9% | 36.0% |
| xgboost | 29.4% | 25.0% | 45.6% |
| logistic | 27.1% | 29.6% | 43.3% |
| Holstein Kiel | Hertha Berlin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1397 | 1554 |
| Surface Elo | 1397 | 1554 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 1 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Braunschweig | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | A | Braunschweig | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Osnabruck | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Osnabruck | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Sep | A | Heidenheim | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Greuther Furth | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Greuther Furth | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Augsburg | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Dresden | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Dresden | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Apr 2026 | Hertha Berlin | 0 - 1 | Holstein Kiel |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Holstein Kiel | 0 - 1 | Hertha Berlin |
| 01 Mar 2024 | Hertha Berlin | 2 - 2 | Holstein Kiel |
| 24 Sep 2023 | Holstein Kiel | 2 - 3 | Hertha Berlin |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.20 | 45.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.90 | 25.6% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.95 | 33.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.41 | 70.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.85 | 35.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |