| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.2% | 64% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 37.8% | 62.1% |
| logistic | 43.8% | 56.2% |
| Jelena Ostapenko | Elise Mertens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1627 | 1702 |
| Surface Elo | 1627 | 1702 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Oct | H | Paula Badosa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Paula Badosa | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Taylah Preston | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Anastasia Zakharova | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Katie Volynets | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Coco Gauff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 1 | Jelena Ostapenko |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.54 | 64.9% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.55 | 39.2% | 05 Oct 06:15 |