| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 75.4% | 84% | -8.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 71.0% | 29.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 79.9% | 20.1% |
| logistic | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| Edas Butvilas | Michael Geerts | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1666 | 1461 |
| Surface Elo | 1666 | 1461 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Moez Echargui | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Harold Mayot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Grigor Dimitrov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Joao Domingues | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 27 Sep | H | Vladyslav Orlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | Michael Geerts |
| 16 Feb 2026 | Edas Butvilas | 0 - 2 | Michael Geerts |
| 26 Aug 2025 | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 0 | Michael Geerts |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.20 | 23.8% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.20 | 83.3% | 30 Sep 06:15 |