| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 62.8% | 79% | -16.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 31.0% | 69.0% |
| logistic | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| Stefan Kozlov | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1503 | 1638 |
| Surface Elo | 1503 | 1638 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 43 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Colton Smith | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Sep | A | Darwin Blanch | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Darwin Blanch | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Harry Wendelken | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | Aidan Mayo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Timo Legout | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Stefan Kozlov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Aug | H | Felix Gill | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Jay Friend | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Jul | H | J.J. Wolf | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Colton Smith | 2 - 0 | Stefan Kozlov |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.30 | 76.9% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.35 | 29.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |