| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 69% | -21.0% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.0% | 92% | -15.7% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.8% | 87% | -21.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 70% | -14.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.7% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 48.3% | 27.4% | 24.3% |
| xgboost | 48.0% | 25.3% | 26.7% |
| logistic | 45.9% | 30.4% | 23.8% |
| Spezia | Cosenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1388 | 1357 |
| Surface Elo | 1388 | 1357 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.67 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 182 | 542 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 4 D |
| 01 Nov | H | Atalanta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Livorno | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Latina Calcio | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | A | Napoli | 1 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Ravenna FC 1913 | 1 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | H | Inter | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | AC Savoia 1908 | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Oct | A | AZ Picerno | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Catanzaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Foggia | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 May 2025 | Spezia | 3 - 1 | Cosenza |
| 28 Aug 2024 | Cosenza | 0 - 0 | Spezia |
| 05 May 2024 | Cosenza | 2 - 2 | Spezia |
| 28 Oct 2023 | Spezia | 0 - 0 | Cosenza |
| 10 Jul 2020 | Spezia | 5 - 1 | Cosenza |
| 29 Nov 2019 | Cosenza | 1 - 1 | Spezia |
| 22 Apr 2019 | Cosenza | 1 - 0 | Spezia |
| 08 Dec 2018 | Spezia | 4 - 0 | Cosenza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.40 | 18.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.60 | 21.7% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.42 | 70.4% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |