| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 73.2% | 85% | -12.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 69.2% | 30.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 85.2% | 14.8% |
| logistic | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Gianluca Cadenasso | Lorenzo Angelini | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1533 | 1418 |
| Surface Elo | 1533 | 1418 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | H | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Vitaliy Sachko | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Lorenzo Angelini | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Benito Sanchez Martinez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Matthew William Donald | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Garrett Johns | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gianluca Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Garrett Johns | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | H | Sciahbasi, M | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Aug | H | Petr Nesterov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gianluca Cadenasso | 2 - 1 | Lorenzo Angelini |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.65 | 21.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.17 | 85.5% | 30 Sep 06:15 |