| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 74.7% | 91% | -16.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 67.8% | 32.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 93.8% | 6.2% |
| logistic | 70.8% | 29.2% |
| Rei Sakamoto | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1745 | 1524 |
| Surface Elo | 1745 | 1524 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Karen Khachanov | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Alex De Minaur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Andrey Rublev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | A | Coleman Wong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Coleman Wong | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Rio Noguchi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | H | Naoya Honda | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Fajing Sun | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Kasidit Samrej | 0 - 2 | Rei Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.90 | 17.0% | 26 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.11 | 90.1% | 26 Oct 06:15 |