OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-03
⚽ La Liga 2 · Saturday 03 October 2026, 14:15 UTC · finished
Almeria 2.40 2 - 1 2.20 Burgos
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.9%64%-13.8%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 75.3%90%-14.8%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 66.2%84%-18.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 54.0%54%+0.1%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 54.4%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson48.8%25.9%25.3%
xgboost45.6%29.2%25.2%
logistic52.5%25.4%22.0%
Inputs the models saw
AlmeriaBurgos
Elo (pre-match)15711587
Surface Elo15711587
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.402.20
Form trend-0.60-0.60
Season points per game2.142.00
Season goals for / game1.571.57
Season goals against / game0.571.00
Rest days65
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W2 W · 1 D
Almeria: last 5
27 SepAMallorca1 - 0W
27 SepAMallorca1 - 0W
27 SepHAtletico Porcuna CF4 - 0W
20 SepHCelta B2 - 0W
20 SepHCelta B2 - 0W
Burgos: last 5
27 SepHEldense1 - 0W
27 SepHEldense1 - 0W
27 SepACultural Leonesa0 - 0D
20 SepALas Palmas2 - 1W
20 SepALas Palmas2 - 1W
Head to head
09 May 2026Burgos0 - 0Almeria
14 Dec 2025Almeria1 - 2Burgos
21 Mar 2025Burgos3 - 1Almeria
05 Oct 2024Almeria2 - 0Burgos
30 Apr 2022Burgos0 - 2Almeria
07 Nov 2021Almeria2 - 0Burgos
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away5.2519.1%03 Oct 15:15
Bet3651X2draw4.3323.1%03 Oct 15:15
Bet3651X2home1.4967.1%03 Oct 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.7557.1%03 Oct 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.0548.8%03 Oct 15:15
SportyBet1X2away5.5018.2%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0025.0%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.5863.3%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9252.1%03 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8653.8%03 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:17 UTC