OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-11-01

NFL · Sunday 01 November 2026, 21:25 UTC · scheduled

Miami Dolphins – 21:25 – New England Patriots

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	64.7%	76%	-11.6%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	35.3%	64.7%

Inputs the models saw

	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.29
form diff	-0.25
rest diff	-0.39
home field	1.00
point diff	-0.76
opponent strength diff	-0.10
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-10-30T14:22:21.001550+00:00

Miami Dolphins: last 5

25 Oct	A	New York Jets	28 - 25	W
11 Oct	H	Cincinnati Bengals	24 - 31	L
04 Oct	A	Minnesota Vikings	10 - 15	L
27 Sep	H	Kansas City Chiefs	10 - 24	L
20 Sep	A	San Francisco 49ers	13 - 35	L

New England Patriots: last 5

23 Oct	A	Chicago Bears	24 - 30	L
18 Oct	H	New York Jets	26 - 19	W
11 Oct	H	Las Vegas Raiders	45 - 17	W
04 Oct	A	Buffalo Bills	29 - 26	W
27 Sep	A	Jacksonville Jaguars	6 - 35	L

Head to head

04 Jan 2026	New England Patriots	38 - 10	Miami Dolphins
14 Sep 2025	Miami Dolphins	27 - 33	New England Patriots
24 Nov 2024	Miami Dolphins	34 - 15	New England Patriots
06 Oct 2024	New England Patriots	10 - 15	Miami Dolphins
29 Oct 2023	Miami Dolphins	31 - 17	New England Patriots
18 Sep 2023	New England Patriots	17 - 24	Miami Dolphins
01 Jan 2023	New England Patriots	23 - 21	Miami Dolphins
11 Sep 2022	Miami Dolphins	20 - 7	New England Patriots
09 Jan 2022	Miami Dolphins	33 - 24	New England Patriots
12 Sep 2021	New England Patriots	16 - 17	Miami Dolphins

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	3.69	27.1%	30 Oct 12:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	1.31	76.3%	30 Oct 12:20

Generated 2026-10-30 15:00 UTC