| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 47.3% | 36% | +10.9% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.1% | 77% | -4.1% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.8% | 51% | +9.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 48.5% | 55% | -6.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 27.5% | 29.2% | 43.3% |
| xgboost | 33.6% | 31.6% | 34.8% |
| logistic | 39.4% | 29.3% | 31.3% |
| Shrewsbury | Colchester | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1360 | 1445 |
| Surface Elo | 1360 | 1445 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.71 | 1.14 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.57 | 1.43 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 22 Sep | A | Tranmere | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Northampton | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Peterborough United | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Crewe | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Swindon | 1 - 3 | L |
| 07 Feb 2026 | Colchester | 2 - 0 | Shrewsbury |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Shrewsbury | 0 - 2 | Colchester |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.75 | 36.4% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.35 | 42.5% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.03 | 49.3% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 26 Sep 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.33 | 30.0% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.97 | 50.8% | 26 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.81 | 55.2% | 26 Sep 06:15 |