| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.3% | 62% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 33.8% | 66.2% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| logistic | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Rafael Tosetto | Jose Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1374 | 1427 |
| Surface Elo | 1374 | 1427 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Sep | H | Joao Victor Couto Loureiro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | H | Jefferson Wendler Filho | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 May | A | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Mar | A | Emilio Nava | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Jun | A | Leonardo Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Wilson Leite | 0 - 2 | L |
| 24 Sep | A | Justin Roberts | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Sep | A | Felipe De Dios | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 May | H | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Apr | H | Lautaro Midon | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 27 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 27 Sep 06:15 |