OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-09-27
🎾 ATP Challenger Bari, Italy Men Singles · Sunday 27 September 2026, 11:30 UTC · finished
Gianmarco Ferrari 1.20 1 - 2 0.60 Filippo Moroni
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 53.9%44%+9.5%✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
markov47.0%53.0%
poisson37.0%35.3%
xgboost56.7%43.2%
logistic53.0%47.0%
Inputs the models saw
Gianmarco FerrariFilippo Moroni
Elo (pre-match)14661482
Surface Elo14661482
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.200.60
Form trend0.300.30
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days3314
Head-to-head (last 10)0 W1 W · 0 D
Gianmarco Ferrari: last 5
24 SepAEric Vanshelboim0 - 2L
23 SepASeghetti, S2 - 0W
07 SepHThiago Seyboth Wild0 - 2L
08 JunHRoberto Carballes Baena0 - 2L
08 JunHSergio Callejon Hernando2 - 0W
Filippo Moroni: last 5
17 NovHLorenzo Giustino0 - 2L
01 SepABilly Harris1 - 2L
18 AugHRobin Bertrand1 - 2L
18 AugAFabrizio Andaloro2 - 0W
11 AugHPetr Brunclik0 - 2L
Head to head
19 Jun 2023Filippo Moroni2 - 1Gianmarco Ferrari
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away1.6062.5%27 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.2544.4%27 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:19 UTC