| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.3% | 63% | -13.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 78.2% | 81% | -2.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 62.5% | 82% | -19.8% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 54% | +3.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 36.1% | 27.7% | 36.2% |
| xgboost | 32.1% | 24.2% | 43.7% |
| logistic | 19.5% | 18.4% | 62.0% |
| Belenenses | Arouca | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1425 | 1575 |
| Surface Elo | 1425 | 1575 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1618 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 11 Oct | A | CD Mafra | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | SC Beira Mar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 May | A | Arouca | 0 - 0 | D |
| 09 May | H | Famalicao | 2 - 3 | L |
| 30 Apr | H | Sp Braga | 0 - 1 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Estrela | 1 - 0 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Estrela | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Sporting | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Sp Lisbon | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Santa Clara | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 May 2022 | Arouca | 0 - 0 | Belenenses |
| 09 Jan 2022 | Belenenses | 2 - 1 | Arouca |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.59 | 62.9% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.50 | 18.2% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.85 | 54.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.92 | 52.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |