| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.6% | 90% | -26.5% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 88.0% | 12.0% |
| logistic | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Alex Hernandez | Matteo Covato | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1430 | 1494 |
| Surface Elo | 1430 | 1494 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 17 Oct | H | Juan Sebastian Osorio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | H | Dorokhov, Ivan | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Felipe De Dios | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Gray Voelzke | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Tristan McCormick | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Dorokhov, Ivan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | A | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Felipe De Dios | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Dakotah Bobo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Stefan Seifert | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 5.90 | 17.0% | 18 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.11 | 90.1% | 18 Oct 06:15 |