| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.6% | 55% | -1.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.3% | 44.7% |
| logistic | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| Jack Pinnington Jones | Joel Schwaerzler | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1620 | 1650 |
| Surface Elo | 1620 | 1650 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.83 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Diego Dedura Palomero | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniil Glinka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Borna Gojo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Joel Schwaerzler | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jack Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Felix Balshaw | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 02 Oct | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Jack Pinnington Jones | 2 - 0 | Joel Schwaerzler |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.97 | 50.8% | 08 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.77 | 56.5% | 08 Oct 06:15 |