| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 58.9% | 70% | -11.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 57.8% | 42.1% |
| logistic | 60.2% | 39.8% |
| Andrej Nedic | Gabriele Piraino | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1550 | 1447 |
| Surface Elo | 1550 | 1447 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Marti Pujolras | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Gabriele Piraino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Filippo Romano | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Andrej Nedic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Felix Gill | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Felix Gill | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Enrico Dalla Valle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Jay Clarke | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Andrej Nedic | 2 - 0 | Gabriele Piraino |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.48 | 67.6% | 20 Oct 06:15 |