| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.9% | 57% | -3.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| logistic | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Marco Trungelliti | Alexander Ritschard | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1745 | 1751 |
| Surface Elo | 1745 | 1751 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.78 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.89 | 0.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Sumit Nagal | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Andrej Martin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Svyatoslav Gulin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Alexander Ritschard | 2 - 0 | Marco Trungelliti |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Alexander Ritschard | 1 - 2 | Marco Trungelliti |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.99 | 50.2% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.76 | 56.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |