| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.8% | 47% | +11.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 61.0% | 38.9% |
| logistic | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Maximilian Marterer | Tom Paris | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1596 | 1498 |
| Surface Elo | 1596 | 1498 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 428 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Aug | A | Christoph Negritu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 May | A | Adam Walton | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Jan | A | Edas Butvilas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | A | Max Hans Rehberg | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Nov | H | Santiago Fa Rodriguez Taverna | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 1 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Yanis Ghazouani Durand | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Niels Visker | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.63 | 61.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 20 Oct 06:15 |