OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-23

🎾 ATP Almaty, Kazakhstan Men Singles · Friday 23 October 2026, 09:10 UTC · finished

Daniil Medvedev 1.80 2 - 0 1.20 Terence Atmane

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	70.0%	85%	-15.5%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	65.8%	34.2%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	73.6%	26.3%
logistic	80.4%	19.6%

Inputs the models saw

	Daniil Medvedev	Terence Atmane
Elo (pre-match)	2085	1746
Surface Elo	2085	1746
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.20
Form trend	0.30	-0.90
Season points per game	2.57	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.71	1.50
Season goals against / game	0.50	1.25
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	2 W	0 W · 0 D

Daniil Medvedev: last 5

23 Oct	H	Terence Atmane	2 - 0	W
22 Oct	H	Sho Shimabukuro	2 - 0	W
22 Oct	H	Sho Shimabukuro	2 - 0	W
17 Oct	A	Rafael Jodar	0 - 2	L
17 Oct	H	Rafael Jodar	0 - 2	L

Terence Atmane: last 5

23 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L
22 Oct	H	Mattia Bellucci	2 - 1	W
22 Oct	A	Mattia Bellucci	2 - 1	W
20 Oct	H	Rinky Hijikata	2 - 0	W
20 Oct	A	Rinky Hijikata	2 - 0	W

Head to head

23 Oct 2026	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Terence Atmane
17 Jun 2026	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 0	Terence Atmane
15 Jan 2024	Daniil Medvedev	2 - 1	Terence Atmane

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	5.40	18.5%	23 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.17	85.5%	23 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:01 UTC