| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 46% | +2.5% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.9% | 81% | -3.9% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 62.2% | 61% | +0.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.3% | 68% | -10.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.2% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.0% | 23.5% | 34.5% |
| xgboost | 48.1% | 25.9% | 26.1% |
| logistic | 48.0% | 25.1% | 26.9% |
| Tamworth | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1416 | 1388 |
| Surface Elo | 1416 | 1388 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 17 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Barrow | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Barrow | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | H | Leeds | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Hartlepool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Woking | 2 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Woking | 2 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Boston Utd | 3 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Derby | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Fylde | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Dec 2025 | Scunthorpe | 3 - 1 | Tamworth |
| 09 Aug 2025 | Tamworth | 1 - 2 | Scunthorpe |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.85 | 35.1% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.75 | 26.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.48 | 67.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.60 | 38.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |