| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 76.2% | 78% | -1.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 17.0% | 83.0% |
| logistic | 25.5% | 74.5% |
| Mika Petkovic | Thiago Monteiro | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1423 | 1709 |
| Surface Elo | 1423 | 1709 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 8 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | A | Francesco Forti | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Raul Brancaccio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Felix Gill | 0 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Andrea Pellegrino | 0 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | A | Mika Petkovic | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | A | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Diego Dedura Palomero | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Mika Petkovic | 2 - 1 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 31 Aug 2026 | Mika Petkovic | 1 - 2 | Thiago Monteiro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.28 | 78.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.45 | 29.0% | 22 Sep 06:15 |