OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-10
⚽ League Two · Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Crawley Town 0.20 2 - 2 2.00 Chesterfield
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 53.4%62%-8.3%✗ miss
DCHome or away 77.1%83%-5.6%✗ miss
DNBAway (DNB) 68.2%80%-11.9%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 54.4%64%-9.7%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.4%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson26.3%25.1%48.7%
xgboost28.8%20.6%50.6%
logistic18.9%26.4%54.6%
Inputs the models saw
Crawley TownChesterfield
Elo (pre-match)13191536
Surface Elo13191536
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.202.00
Form trend0.10-0.10
Season points per game0.571.56
Season goals for / game0.861.67
Season goals against / game1.861.33
Rest days217
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W1 W · 2 D
Crawley Town: last 5
06 OctHBromley4 - 0W
22 SepAMilton Keynes Dons1 - 4L
19 SepAGrimsby0 - 2L
19 SepAGrimsby0 - 2L
12 SepHCheltenham1 - 3L
Chesterfield: last 5
03 OctHTranmere4 - 2W
03 OctHTranmere4 - 2W
26 SepACheltenham1 - 2L
26 SepACheltenham1 - 2L
22 SepHPort Vale1 - 1D
Head to head
21 Feb 2026Crawley Town1 - 1Chesterfield
30 Aug 2025Chesterfield2 - 2Crawley Town
03 Feb 2018Chesterfield1 - 2Crawley Town
17 Oct 2017Crawley Town0 - 2Chesterfield
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.5763.7%10 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%10 Oct 15:00
Bet3651X2home5.0020.0%10 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%10 Oct 15:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3542.5%10 Oct 15:00
SportyBet1X2away1.6361.4%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.2023.8%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home4.7521.1%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5564.5%10 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4041.7%10 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:09 UTC