| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 52.7% | 62% | -9.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 47.8% | 52.1% |
| logistic | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Tristan Boyer | Vilius Gaubas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1630 | 1673 |
| Surface Elo | 1630 | 1673 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.40 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Zsombor Piros | 1 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Kimmer Coppejans | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Tristan Boyer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Luka Mikrut | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Tristan Boyer | 2 - 1 | Vilius Gaubas |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.60 | 62.5% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 15 Oct 06:15 |