| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.0% | 67% | -4.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| logistic | 65.0% | 35.0% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Maximilian Marterer | Thijs Boogaard | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1625 | 1478 |
| Surface Elo | 1625 | 1478 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 10 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 22 Oct | A | Arthur Bouquier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Tom Paris | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Aug | A | Christoph Negritu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 May | A | Adam Walton | 2 - 3 | L |
| 13 Jan | A | Edas Butvilas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | A | Freire Da Silva, Adan | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Henry Bernet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Trufelli, Timeo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Philip Henning | 1 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.42 | 41.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.50 | 66.7% | 23 Oct 06:15 |