| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.8% | 55% | -5.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 75.6% | 85% | -9.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.6% | 75% | -10.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.0% | 60% | -5.0% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.4% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.8% | 29.6% | 30.6% |
| xgboost | 54.4% | 25.3% | 20.4% |
| logistic | 45.6% | 26.3% | 28.1% |
| Alcorcon | Ibiza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1425 | 1382 |
| Surface Elo | 1425 | 1382 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.50 |
| Season points per game | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.75 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 874 | 1246 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 16 Oct | H | Huesca | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Juventud Torremolinos CF | 5 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Real Madrid | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Gimnastic | 3 - 0 | W |
| 02 Jun | H | Burgos | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | A | Aguilas FC | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Villarreal CF B | 1 - 0 | W |
| 27 May | A | Malaga | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 May | H | Zaragoza | 1 - 0 | W |
| 15 May | A | Levante | 0 - 0 | D |
| 08 Jan 2022 | Ibiza | 6 - 2 | Alcorcon |
| 01 Nov 2021 | Alcorcon | 0 - 2 | Ibiza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.30 | 30.3% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.82 | 54.9% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 25 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.67 | 59.9% | 25 Oct 06:15 |