| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.0% | 47% | -3.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 73.7% | 75% | -1.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 57.4% | 65% | -7.7% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.0% | 50% | +6.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 41.0% | 26.9% | 32.1% |
| xgboost | 39.6% | 30.6% | 29.8% |
| logistic | 39.2% | 28.6% | 32.2% |
| Monaco | Lille | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1754 | 1769 |
| Surface Elo | 1754 | 1769 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 22 Oct | H | Freiburg | 3 - 0 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | PFC CSKA Sofia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 21 Oct | H | Galatasaray | 2 - 4 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Brest | 1 - 1 | D |
| 13 Oct | A | Arsenal | 0 - 3 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Le Havre | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | Monaco | 0 - 1 | Lille |
| 24 Aug 2025 | Lille | 1 - 0 | Monaco |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Lille | 2 - 1 | Monaco |
| 18 Oct 2024 | Monaco | 0 - 0 | Lille |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Monaco | 1 - 0 | Lille |
| 29 Oct 2023 | Lille | 2 - 0 | Monaco |
| 14 May 2023 | Monaco | 0 - 0 | Lille |
| 23 Oct 2022 | Lille | 4 - 3 | Monaco |
| 06 May 2022 | Lille | 1 - 2 | Monaco |
| 19 Nov 2021 | Monaco | 2 - 2 | Lille |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.64 | 27.5% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.53 | 28.3% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.12 | 47.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |