| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.4% | 44% | +6.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.8% | 75% | +1.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 65.8% | 60% | +6.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.8% | 58% | +3.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.8% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 55.5% | 22.0% | 22.5% |
| xgboost | 45.7% | 25.8% | 28.5% |
| logistic | 45.8% | 27.8% | 26.4% |
| Monaco | Freiburg | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1754 | 1666 |
| Surface Elo | 1754 | 1666 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Lorient | 0 - 1 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | PFC CSKA Sofia | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Toulouse | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | H | FK Jablonec | 3 - 2 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Schalke 04 | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | H | Schalke 04 | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.24 | 30.9% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.73 | 26.8% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.26 | 44.2% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 22 Oct 06:15 |