| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.4% | 54% | +5.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.7% | 44.8% |
| xgboost | 31.3% | 67.7% |
| logistic | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | Montréal Canadiens | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1423 | 1608 |
| Surface Elo | 1423 | 1608 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.47 | 0.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.65 | 3.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 3.29 | 3.19 |
| Rest days | 4 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 5 W · 0 D |
| 04 Nov | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 2 - 3 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Vancouver Canucks | 4 - 2 | W |
| 29 Oct | A | Seattle Kraken | 4 - 5 | L |
| 27 Oct | A | Calgary Flames | 2 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Edmonton Oilers | 7 - 2 | W |
| 06 Nov | H | Utah Utah Hockey Club | 5 - 4 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Winnipeg Jets | 4 - 5 | L |
| 31 Oct | H | Pittsburgh Penguins | 5 - 4 | W |
| 30 Oct | A | Dallas Stars | 5 - 2 | W |
| 28 Oct | A | St. Louis Blues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 2 - 3 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Montréal Canadiens | 3 - 1 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 2 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 23 Nov 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 5 - 2 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 08 Oct 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 5 - 2 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 12 Apr 2025 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 1 - 0 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Montréal Canadiens | 3 - 7 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 - 1 | Montréal Canadiens |
| 09 Oct 2024 | Montréal Canadiens | 1 - 0 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | home | 2.08 | 48.1% | 07 Nov 20:20 |
| Pinnacle sharp | 1X2 | away | 1.84 | 54.3% | 07 Nov 20:20 |