| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.7% | 85% | -20.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.1% | 33.9% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 77.7% | 22.2% |
| logistic | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Francesco Passaro | Yanaki Milev | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1591 | 1560 |
| Surface Elo | 1591 | 1560 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.63 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.75 | 0.63 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 09 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Oriol Roca Batalla | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jonas Forejtek | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Ivan Gakhov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Francesco Passaro | 2 - 0 | Yanaki Milev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.65 | 21.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.17 | 85.5% | 10 Oct 06:15 |