| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 57% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 48.6% | 51.3% |
| logistic | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Jerome Kym | Edas Butvilas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1721 | 1686 |
| Surface Elo | 1721 | 1686 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | A | Toby Samuel | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Edas Butvilas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Toby Samuel | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tiago Torres | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Moez Echargui | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Michael Geerts | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Jerome Kym | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Moez Echargui | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Michael Geerts | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Edas Butvilas | 1 - 2 | Jerome Kym |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 02 Oct 06:15 |