| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 50.9% | 60% | -9.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 75.9% | 81% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.8% | 79% | -14.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.8% | 55% | -3.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.5% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 40.8% | 27.4% | 31.8% |
| xgboost | 47.2% | 23.7% | 29.1% |
| logistic | 47.4% | 27.4% | 25.2% |
| Doncaster | Burton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1482 | 1478 |
| Surface Elo | 1482 | 1478 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.86 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.14 | 1.56 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.29 | 1.67 |
| Rest days | 21 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 3 W · 3 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Liverpool | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Peterboro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Peterborough United | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0 - 1 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Plymouth | 2 - 3 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Grimsby | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | H | Huddersfield | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Huddersfield | 1 - 3 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Plymouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Plymouth | 1 - 0 | W |
| 03 Feb 2026 | Burton | 1 - 2 | Doncaster |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Doncaster | 1 - 1 | Burton |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Doncaster | 2 - 0 | Burton |
| 27 Nov 2021 | Burton | 2 - 0 | Doncaster |
| 13 Apr 2021 | Doncaster | 0 - 3 | Burton |
| 19 Dec 2020 | Burton | 1 - 3 | Doncaster |
| 02 Nov 2019 | Doncaster | 2 - 2 | Burton |
| 19 Jan 2019 | Doncaster | 2 - 2 | Burton |
| 18 Aug 2018 | Burton | 1 - 0 | Doncaster |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 4.50 | 22.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 1.68 | 59.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.88 | 53.2% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.98 | 50.5% | 10 Oct 15:00 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.75 | 21.1% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.00 | 25.0% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.79 | 55.9% | 10 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.99 | 50.2% | 10 Oct 06:15 |