OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🇪🇸 La Liga · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:15 UTC · finished
Villarreal 1.20 0 - 0 1.00 Elche
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 56.9%69%-12.3%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 83.3%88%-5.1%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 76.8%85%-8.1%void
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 60.7%69%-8.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 57.8%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson66.8%17.7%15.4%
xgboost49.6%30.6%19.8%
logistic63.0%22.1%14.9%
Inputs the models saw
VillarrealElche
Elo (pre-match)16941575
Surface Elo16941575
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.201.00
Form trend-0.30-0.40
Season points per game1.000.75
Season goals for / game1.631.38
Season goals against / game1.632.13
Rest days66
Head-to-head (last 10)4 W2 W · 2 D
Villarreal: last 5
10 OctAReal Madrid0 - 1L
20 SepHLevante3 - 1W
17 SepAMalaga3 - 1W
14 SepHBetis1 - 2L
05 SepHLa Coruna2 - 3L
Elche: last 5
11 OctHCelta0 - 0D
11 OctHCelta0 - 0D
10 OctHValencia4 - 1W
03 OctHUCAM Murcia1 - 5L
27 SepAYeclano Deportivo0 - 1L
Head to head
08 Mar 2026Villarreal2 - 1Elche
03 Jan 2026Elche1 - 3Villarreal
04 Feb 2023Elche3 - 1Villarreal
04 Sep 2022Villarreal4 - 0Elche
16 Jan 2022Elche1 - 0Villarreal
22 Sep 2021Villarreal4 - 1Elche
06 Feb 2021Elche2 - 2Villarreal
06 Dec 2020Villarreal0 - 0Elche
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away6.0016.7%17 Oct 15:15
Bet3651X2draw5.0020.0%17 Oct 15:15
Bet3651X2home1.4469.4%17 Oct 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.4469.4%17 Oct 15:15
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.7536.4%17 Oct 15:15
SportyBet1X2away7.0314.2%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw5.4718.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.4469.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.4668.5%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.8035.7%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC