| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.5% | 58% | +1.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.7% | 59.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 39.0% | 60.9% |
| logistic | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Elmer Moller | Lukas Neumayer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1697 | 1732 |
| Surface Elo | 1697 | 1732 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.14 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.86 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Lukas Neumayer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Vilius Gaubas | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Zsombor Piros | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Elmer Moller | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Matej Dodig | 0 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Olle Wallin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Elmer Moller | 1 - 2 | Lukas Neumayer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.69 | 59.2% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 14 Oct 06:15 |