| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 47.5% | 44% | +3.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 77.1% | 79% | -2.0% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.6% | 58% | +2.4% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.4% | 68% | -6.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.8% | 25.0% | 32.1% |
| xgboost | 46.6% | 20.7% | 32.7% |
| logistic | 48.9% | 23.8% | 27.3% |
| Twente | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1695 | 1704 |
| Surface Elo | 1695 | 1704 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 4 W · 3 D |
| 05 Nov | H | Pafos FC | 3 - 1 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Excelsior | 9 - 0 | W |
| 01 Nov | A | Excelsior | 9 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | AZ Alkmaar | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | FC Midtjylland | 6 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | AZ Alkmaar | 1 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | AZ Alkmaar | 1 - 0 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 1 | W |
| 25 Oct | A | Sparta Rotterdam | 2 - 1 | W |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Ajax | 1 - 2 | Twente |
| 26 Oct 2025 | Twente | 2 - 3 | Ajax |
| 18 May 2025 | Ajax | 2 - 0 | Twente |
| 10 Nov 2024 | Twente | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Ajax | 2 - 1 | Twente |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Twente | 3 - 1 | Ajax |
| 28 May 2023 | Twente | 3 - 1 | Ajax |
| 14 Jan 2023 | Ajax | 0 - 0 | Twente |
| 13 Feb 2022 | Ajax | 5 - 0 | Twente |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Twente | 1 - 1 | Ajax |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.84 | 35.2% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.87 | 25.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.28 | 43.9% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.47 | 68.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.70 | 37.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |