| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 57.7% | 60% | -2.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | |
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | |
| Thiago Monteiro | Marco Trungelliti | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1632 | 1714 |
| Surface Elo | 1632 | 1714 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 12 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 18 Sep | A | Diego Dedura Palomero | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Sep | A | Vitaliy Sachko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 14 Sep | A | Diego Dedura | 2 - 0 | W |
| 18 Sep | A | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Filip Pieczonka | 2 - 1 | W |
| 15 Sep | A | Cuenin, Sean | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep | H | Thiago Monteiro | 1 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Sep 2026 | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Marco Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 11 Apr 2022 | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | Thiago Monteiro |
| 13 Sep 2021 | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | Thiago Monteiro |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.66 | 60.2% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.15 | 46.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |