| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 45.9% | 41% | +5.1% | |
| DC | Home or away | 74.6% | 85% | -10.7% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 59.9% | 52% | +8.2% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.4% | 76% | -20.4% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 55.8% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.5% | 27.9% | 25.6% |
| xgboost | 35.0% | 26.7% | 38.3% |
| logistic | 46.0% | 28.3% | 25.8% |
| Birmingham | Swansea | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1601 | 1616 |
| Surface Elo | 1601 | 1616 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 0 W · 6 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Cardiff | 0 - 1 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | Cardiff | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | QPR | 3 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | H | QPR | 3 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Preston | 4 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | QPR | 0 - 5 | L |
| 24 Oct | A | QPR | 0 - 5 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | West Ham | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Millwall | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 Jan 2026 | Swansea | 1 - 1 | Birmingham |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Birmingham | 1 - 0 | Swansea |
| 13 Jan 2024 | Birmingham | 2 - 2 | Swansea |
| 05 Aug 2023 | Swansea | 1 - 1 | Birmingham |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Swansea | 3 - 4 | Birmingham |
| 08 Nov 2022 | Birmingham | 2 - 2 | Swansea |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Swansea | 0 - 0 | Birmingham |
| 23 Oct 2021 | Birmingham | 2 - 1 | Swansea |
| 02 Apr 2021 | Birmingham | 1 - 0 | Swansea |
| 19 Sep 2020 | Swansea | 0 - 0 | Birmingham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.40 | 22.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.45 | 40.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.32 | 75.8% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.20 | 31.2% | 30 Oct 06:15 |