| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 44.1% | 33% | +11.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 74.4% | 76% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 55.1% | 44% | +11.1% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.0% | 62% | -3.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 32.9% | 29.4% | 37.7% |
| xgboost | 38.4% | 28.0% | 33.6% |
| logistic | 36.6% | 27.5% | 35.9% |
| Schalke 04 | Mainz | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1580 | 1618 |
| Surface Elo | 1580 | 1618 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 6 W | 1 W · 3 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Freiburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Freiburg | 1 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Austria Lustenau | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | RW Oberhausen | 5 - 2 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Elversberg | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 - 4 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Borussia M´gladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4 - 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | H | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 - 3 | L |
| 05 May 2023 | Mainz | 2 - 3 | Schalke 04 |
| 09 Nov 2022 | Schalke 04 | 1 - 0 | Mainz |
| 05 Mar 2021 | Schalke 04 | 0 - 0 | Mainz |
| 07 Nov 2020 | Mainz | 2 - 2 | Schalke 04 |
| 16 Feb 2020 | Mainz | 0 - 0 | Schalke 04 |
| 20 Sep 2019 | Schalke 04 | 2 - 1 | Mainz |
| 23 Feb 2019 | Mainz | 3 - 0 | Schalke 04 |
| 29 Sep 2018 | Schalke 04 | 1 - 0 | Mainz |
| 09 Mar 2018 | Mainz | 0 - 1 | Schalke 04 |
| 20 Oct 2017 | Schalke 04 | 2 - 0 | Mainz |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.45 | 40.8% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.80 | 35.7% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.67 | 59.9% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 17 Oct 14:30 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.36 | 42.4% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.73 | 26.8% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.04 | 32.9% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.60 | 62.5% | 17 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.40 | 41.7% | 17 Oct 06:15 |