| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 55.5% | 67% | -11.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.8% | 86% | -6.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 71.9% | 83% | -10.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 68% | -12.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 59.2% | 23.6% | 17.2% |
| xgboost | 51.7% | 24.3% | 24.0% |
| logistic | 58.0% | 24.2% | 17.8% |
| Napoli | Frosinone | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1786 | 1672 |
| Surface Elo | 1786 | 1672 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.40 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 20 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Pisa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Fiorentina | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Ascoli | 2 - 2 | D |
| 13 Sep | H | Bologna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Inter | 2 - 3 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Como | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Genoa | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Venezia | 3 - 2 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | Fiorentina | 3 - 0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | Juventus | 0 - 1 | L |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Napoli | 2 - 2 | Frosinone |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Frosinone | 1 - 3 | Napoli |
| 28 Apr 2019 | Frosinone | 0 - 2 | Napoli |
| 08 Dec 2018 | Napoli | 4 - 0 | Frosinone |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 6.42 | 15.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.23 | 19.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.47 | 68.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.80 | 35.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |