| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 56.6% | 50% | +6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.0% | 77% | +3.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 74.9% | 68% | +6.9% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.6% | 56% | +7.2% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 58.9% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 19.0% | 24.4% | 56.6% |
| logistic | failed: ValueError | ||
| xgboost | failed: ValueError | ||
| Venezia | Lazio | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1583 | 1740 |
| Surface Elo | 1583 | 1740 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.75 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Brescia | 1 - 1 | D |
| 11 Sep | H | Fiorentina | 2 - 4 | L |
| 06 Sep | A | Frosinone | 2 - 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | Ac Milan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | Lecce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Ac Milan | 2 - 2 | D |
| 07 Sep | A | Udinese | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | Genoa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 24 Aug | A | Bologna | 1 - 0 | W |
| 23 May | H | Pisa | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Feb 2025 | Venezia | 0 - 0 | Lazio |
| 18 Aug 2024 | Lazio | 3 - 1 | Venezia |
| 14 Mar 2022 | Lazio | 1 - 0 | Venezia |
| 22 Dec 2021 | Venezia | 1 - 3 | Lazio |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 1.95 | 51.3% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 3.90 | 25.6% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.80 | 55.6% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.00 | 50.0% | 19 Sep 19:45 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.79 | 26.4% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.89 | 25.7% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.72 | 58.1% | 19 Sep 06:16 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 19 Sep 06:16 |