| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 67.6% | 67% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| logistic | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1820 | 1616 |
| Surface Elo | 1820 | 1616 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 15 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Nicolas Mejia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Bu Yunchaokete | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Yunchaokete Bu | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 1 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Ugo Blanchet | 0 - 1 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 0 - 2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | Adam Walton | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | Nicolas Mejia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.49 | 67.1% | 07 Oct 06:15 |