| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.8% | 54% | +4.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 32.0% | 68.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| logistic | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Yaroslav Demin | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1416 | 1487 |
| Surface Elo | 1416 | 1487 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 1.40 |
| Rest days | 2 | 11 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Akira Santillan | 1 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Binda, Alexander | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Filip Peliwo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | H | Akira Santillan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Beibit Zhukayev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Jie Cui | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Dinko Dinev | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Yaroslav Demin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Keisuke Saitoh | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Oct | A | Yaroslav Demin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Akira Santillan | 2 - 1 | Yaroslav Demin |
| 07 Oct 2026 | Yaroslav Demin | 0 - 2 | Akira Santillan |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.89 | 52.9% | 20 Oct 06:15 |