OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-11

🎾 ATP Shanghai, China Men Singles · Sunday 11 October 2026, 06:50 UTC · finished

Francisco Cerundolo 1.80 1 - 2 1.80 Jakub Mensik

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	57.0%	43%	+13.5%	✗ miss

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
markov	48.1%	51.9%
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	66.5%	33.4%
logistic	54.5%	45.5%

Inputs the models saw

	Francisco Cerundolo	Jakub Mensik
Elo (pre-match)	1949	1940
Surface Elo	1949	1940
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.80	1.80
Form trend	-0.30	0.00
Season points per game	2.25	2.00
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.33
Season goals against / game	0.75	0.67
Rest days	1	1
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	0 W · 0 D

Francisco Cerundolo: last 5

11 Oct	H	Jakub Mensik	1 - 2	L
09 Oct	H	Roman Safiullin	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Roman Safiullin	2 - 0	W
04 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L
04 Oct	A	Daniil Medvedev	0 - 2	L

Jakub Mensik: last 5

11 Oct	A	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 1	W
09 Oct	A	Miomir Kecmanovic	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Miomir Kecmanovic	2 - 0	W
03 Oct	A	Francisco Cerundolo	0 - 2	L
03 Oct	A	Francisco Cerundolo	0 - 2	L

Head to head

11 Oct 2026	Francisco Cerundolo	1 - 2	Jakub Mensik
03 Oct 2026	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 0	Jakub Mensik
03 Oct 2026	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 0	Jakub Mensik
21 Apr 2025	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 1	Jakub Mensik
26 Sep 2024	Francisco Cerundolo	2 - 0	Jakub Mensik

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.66	60.2%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.30	43.5%	10 Oct 06:15

Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC