OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🏈 NFL on 2026-09-27

NFL · Sunday 27 September 2026, 17:00 UTC · finished

Jacksonville Jaguars – 35 - 6 – New England Patriots

NFL forecast: home/away probabilities are conditional on no tie. Full-game moneylines include overtime; ties refund. Pick publication is disabled pending validation.

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	55.1%	60%	-4.8%	✓ hit

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
ensemble	55.1%	44.9%

Inputs the models saw

	Jacksonville Jaguars	New England Patriots
playoff	0.00
elo diff	-0.07
form diff	0.00
rest diff	-0.02
home field	1.00
point diff	0.24
opponent strength diff	-0.14
Information cutoff (UTC)	2026-09-26T17:00:00+00:00

Jacksonville Jaguars: last 5

20 Sep	A	Denver Broncos	13 - 20	L
13 Sep	H	Cleveland Browns	34 - 10	W
11 Jan	H	Buffalo Bills	24 - 27	L
04 Jan	H	Tennessee Titans	41 - 7	W
28 Dec	A	Indianapolis Colts	23 - 17	W

New England Patriots: last 5

20 Sep	H	Pittsburgh Steelers	20 - 3	W
10 Sep	A	Seattle Seahawks	10 - 13	L
08 Feb	H	Seattle Seahawks	13 - 29	L
25 Jan	A	Denver Broncos	10 - 7	W
18 Jan	H	Houston Texans	28 - 16	W

Head to head

20 Oct 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars	32 - 16	New England Patriots
02 Jan 2022	New England Patriots	50 - 10	Jacksonville Jaguars
16 Sep 2018	Jacksonville Jaguars	31 - 20	New England Patriots
21 Jan 2018	New England Patriots	24 - 20	Jacksonville Jaguars
27 Sep 2015	New England Patriots	51 - 17	Jacksonville Jaguars
23 Dec 2012	Jacksonville Jaguars	16 - 23	New England Patriots
27 Dec 2009	New England Patriots	35 - 7	Jacksonville Jaguars
13 Jan 2008	New England Patriots	31 - 20	Jacksonville Jaguars
24 Dec 2006	Jacksonville Jaguars	21 - 24	New England Patriots
08 Jan 2006	New England Patriots	28 - 3	Jacksonville Jaguars

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	home	1.68	59.5%	27 Sep 14:20
Pinnacle sharp	1X2	away	2.33	42.9%	27 Sep 14:20

Generated 2026-10-30 20:32 UTC