OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-17

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Saturday 17 October 2026, 08:30 UTC · scheduled

Alexander Zverev 2.40 08:30 2.40 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	76.1%	79%	-3.3%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	81.3%	18.7%
logistic	66.8%	33.2%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Alexander Zverev	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Elo (pre-match)	2181	2020
Surface Elo	2181	2020
Form, last 5 (PPG)	2.40	2.40
Form trend	-0.60	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	1	2
Head-to-head (last 10)	6 W	1 W · 0 D

Alexander Zverev: last 5

17 Oct	A	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1 - 2	L
15 Oct	H	Alex De Minaur	2 - 0	W
15 Oct	A	Alex De Minaur	2 - 0	W
13 Oct	H	Alexander Bublik	2 - 1	W
13 Oct	A	Alexander Bublik	2 - 1	W

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: last 5

17 Oct	H	Alexander Zverev	2 - 1	W
15 Oct	A	Arthur Gea	1 - 0	W
15 Oct	H	Arthur Gea	1 - 0	W
13 Oct	A	Hubert Hurkacz	2 - 0	W
13 Oct	H	Hubert Hurkacz	2 - 1	W

Head to head

17 Oct 2026	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2 - 1	Alexander Zverev
27 Oct 2025	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0 - 2	Alexander Zverev
21 Apr 2025	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1 - 2	Alexander Zverev
27 Sep 2023	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1 - 2	Alexander Zverev
07 Aug 2023	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2 - 0	Alexander Zverev
31 May 2021	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0 - 3	Alexander Zverev
12 Oct 2020	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0 - 2	Alexander Zverev
31 Aug 2020	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0 - 3	Alexander Zverev

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3.96	25.2%	17 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.27	78.7%	17 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.00	25.0%	17 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.25	80.0%	17 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.20	23.8%	17 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.24	80.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.60	21.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.26	79.4%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.80	20.8%	17 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Alexander Zverev	1.28	78.1%	17 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.27	23.4%	17 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.23	81.3%	17 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.00	25.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.25	80.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.00	25.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.25	80.0%	17 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3.85	26.0%	17 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.28	78.1%	17 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3.80	26.3%	17 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.28	78.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3.90	25.6%	17 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.25	80.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.70	21.3%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.26	79.4%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.80	20.8%	17 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Alexander Zverev	1.27	78.7%	17 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.00	25.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.25	80.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.27	23.4%	17 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.27	78.7%	17 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3.55	28.2%	17 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.21	82.6%	17 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	4.10	24.4%	17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	1.26	79.4%	17 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.10	24.4%	17 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.22	82.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.30	23.3%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.21	82.6%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3.80	26.3%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.28	78.1%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	3.80	26.3%	17 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.28	78.1%	17 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.00	25.0%	17 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.25	80.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.10	24.4%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.26	79.4%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	4.00	25.0%	17 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Alexander Zverev	1.24	80.7%	17 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 18:21 UTC