OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ England League Two · Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC · finished
Accrington 1.20 3 - 1 2.00 Gillingham
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.4%42%+5.7%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 74.8%71%+3.7%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 62.8%58%+5.1%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 62.2%55%+6.9%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 57.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson40.3%29.1%30.6%
xgboost43.1%31.8%25.1%
logistic42.4%29.8%27.8%
Inputs the models saw
AccringtonGillingham
Elo (pre-match)13721419
Surface Elo13721419
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.202.00
Form trend-0.400.20
Season points per game1.501.75
Season goals for / game0.751.75
Season goals against / game0.251.00
Rest days77
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 3 D
Accrington: last 5
10 OctAOldham0 - 0D
10 OctAOldham0 - 0D
06 OctHSalford1 - 1D
03 OctHCheltenham2 - 0W
03 OctHCheltenham2 - 0W
Gillingham: last 5
13 OctHBrighton & Hove Albion U214 - 3W
10 OctARotherham4 - 1W
10 OctARotherham4 - 1W
03 OctHNewport County0 - 0D
03 OctHNewport County0 - 0D
Head to head
06 Apr 2026Gillingham2 - 0Accrington
02 Aug 2025Accrington1 - 1Gillingham
15 Mar 2025Accrington1 - 1Gillingham
12 Oct 2024Gillingham1 - 2Accrington
13 Jan 2024Accrington1 - 2Gillingham
12 Aug 2023Gillingham1 - 0Accrington
26 Mar 2022Accrington1 - 2Gillingham
30 Oct 2021Gillingham0 - 0Accrington
16 Jan 2021Accrington0 - 1Gillingham
15 Dec 2020Gillingham0 - 2Accrington
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.8535.1%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.4029.4%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4041.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.9351.8%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.8155.2%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC