| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 69.1% | 57% | +11.6% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 64.3% | 35.6% |
| logistic | 64.8% | 35.2% |
| Hugo Gaston | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1789 | 1648 |
| Surface Elo | 1789 | 1648 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Rest days | 4 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Daniel Jade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Daniel Jade | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Andrey Rublev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Moise Kouame | 1 - 0 | W |
| 13 Oct | A | Jakub Paul | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Moise Kouame | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
| 06 Oct 2025 | Hugo Gaston | 2 - 1 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
| 22 Sep 2025 | Hugo Gaston | 0 - 2 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.74 | 57.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |