| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 61.3% | 69% | -7.7% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 58.2% | 41.7% |
| logistic | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Alejandro Moro Canas | Sander Jong | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1674 | 1536 |
| Surface Elo | 1674 | 1536 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.57 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.67 | 1.71 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 02 Oct | H | Pedro Vives Marcos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | H | Bruno Pujol Navarro | 1 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | David Naharro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 1 | W |
| 02 Oct | A | Lorenzo Carboni | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Michiel De Krom | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Perez socas, Roberto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | A | Gerard Campana Lee | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Ioannis Xilas | 2 - 1 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.55 | 39.2% | 03 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.45 | 69.0% | 03 Oct 06:15 |