| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 46.2% | 47% | -0.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.5% | 77% | -0.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 59.5% | 62% | -3.0% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.2% | 64% | +9.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 72.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 26.0% | 24.2% | 49.8% |
| xgboost | 36.5% | 21.5% | 42.0% |
| logistic | 31.6% | 25.8% | 42.5% |
| Monza | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1547 | 1673 |
| Surface Elo | 1547 | 1673 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 0.60 | 1.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.80 | 2.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.40 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 8 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 6 W · 0 D |
| 31 Oct | A | Bologna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Oct | A | Bologna | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Napoli | 1 - 4 | L |
| 28 Oct | H | Napoli | 1 - 4 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 07 Nov | H | Reggiana | 4 - 3 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | FC Kairat Almaty | 1 - 1 | D |
| 02 Nov | H | Parma | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Nov | A | Spezia | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Oct | A | Fiorentina | 2 - 2 | D |
| 04 May 2025 | Monza | 0 - 4 | Atalanta |
| 30 Oct 2024 | Atalanta | 2 - 0 | Monza |
| 21 Apr 2024 | Monza | 1 - 2 | Atalanta |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Atalanta | 3 - 0 | Monza |
| 04 Jun 2023 | Atalanta | 5 - 2 | Monza |
| 05 Sep 2022 | Monza | 0 - 2 | Atalanta |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.15 | 46.5% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.33 | 30.0% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 06 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 06 Nov 06:15 |